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Aggregate versus Subaggregate Models in Local Area Forecasting

 

作者: D.M. Dunn,   W.H. Williams,   T.L. Dechaine,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  （Taylor Available online 1976）
卷期: Volume 71, issue 353  

页码: 68-71

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1976

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481478

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Should statistical forecasts be constructed by aggregating data to each level for which forecasts are required or aggregating the forecasts from the lower levels? The relevant literature suggests no general answer. In this study using actual data, forecasts aggregated from lower-level modeling were found best.

 

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