Further on the Nature of the Australian Business Cycle
作者:
ALLAN P. LAYTON,
期刊:
Economic Record
(WILEY Available online 1994)
卷期:
Volume 70,
issue 208
页码: 12-18
ISSN:0013-0249
年代: 1994
DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1994.tb01820.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
Strong and Tan (1991) found Australian output variation was well characterized by a stochastic trend implying output shocks have a permanent effect on the level of activity. The paper finds that in Australia the stochastic trend alternative is statistically dominated when the data are allowed to be characterized by a probabilistic segmented trend specification. This finding implies shocks will only have a permanent effect on output when the series' growth path switches from one growth regime into another as a result of the shock.
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