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Testing for the Constancy of Parameters over Time

 

作者: Jukka Nyblom,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1989)
卷期: Volume 84, issue 405  

页码: 223-230

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1989

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478759

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Change-point problem;Cumulative-sums test;Locally most powerful test;Martingale;Time-varying parameters;Weak convergence of stochastic processes

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Tests are proposed for detecting possible changes in parameters when the observations are obtained sequentially in time. While deriving the tests the alternative one has in mind specifies the parameter process as a martingale. The distribution theory of these tests relies on the large-sample results; that is, only the limiting null distributions are known (except in very special cases). The main tool in establishing these limiting distributions is weak convergence of stochastic processes. Suppose that we have vector-valued observationsx1, …,xnobtained sequentially in time (or ordered in some other linear fashion). Their joint distribution is described by determining the initial distribution forx1and the conditional distribution for eachxkgiven the past up toxk–1. Suppose further that these distributions depend on ap-dimensional parameter vectorθ. At least locally (i.e., in a short time period) this may be more or less legitimate. In the long run, however, the possibility of some changes in the observation-generating process should be taken into account. Specifically, it is assumed here that those changes occur through a parameter variation in the form of a martingale. The martingale specification has an advantage of covering several types of departure of constancy: for example, a single jump at an unknown time point (the so-called change-point model) or slow random variation (typically random walk). The tests are derived by first finding the locally most powerful test against a martingale-type alternative when the starting value of the parameter process is known. After some simplification a test having a known numerically tractable limiting distribution is developed. When the starting point is unknown an efficient estimate is substituted for it. In addition, the corresponding limiting distribution is established. The proposed tests turn out to be based on cumulative sums of the score function (the derivative of the log-likelihood).

 

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