Business survey data in forecasting the output of swedish and finnish metal and engineering industries: A kalman filter approach
作者:
Markku Rahiala,
Timo Teräsvirta,
期刊:
Journal of Forecasting
(WILEY Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 12,
issue 3‐4
页码: 255-271
ISSN:0277-6693
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1002/for.3980120307
出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.
关键词: Autoprojective forecasting;Indirect observations;Industrial production;Short‐term forecasting;Structural change;Time series
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractIn this paper forecasting the production volume of the Swedish and Finnish metal and engineering industries one quarter ahead is discussed. A practical way of making use of the predictive information in the answers of the quarterly business survey is presented which is based on the application of the Kalman filter. It is found that the most informative questions of the business survey from the point of view of forecasting are different in the two countries. However, for both Sweden and Finland, the improvement in prediction accuracy after taking account of relevant business survey information is significant when the precision of autoprojective forecasts is used as a baseline.
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