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Predicting Shifts in the Mean of a Multivariate Time Series Process: An Application in Predicting Business Failures

 

作者: PanayiotisT. Theodossiou,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1993)
卷期: Volume 88, issue 422  

页码: 441-449

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1993

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1993.10476294

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Bankruptcy prediction;Business failure prediction models;Discriminant analysis;Multivariate cumulative sum procedure;Sequential procedure;Serial correlation

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

A firm in the early stages of financial distress exhibits characteristics different from those of healthy firms. As the economic condition of a firm worsens, its financial characteristics shift toward those of failed firms. Practitioners in the financial sector have long been interested in the early detection of a firm's slide toward insolvency. Several models have been developed with this purpose in mind, but these older models are static in nature. Therefore, a need exists for the development of business failure prediction models that assess the financial condition of firms sequentially over time. This article addresses this need by presenting a sequential business failure prediction model.

 

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