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Modeling and forecasting time series with a general non‐normal distribution

 

作者: A. Louise Swift,  

 

期刊: Journal of Forecasting  (WILEY Available online 1995)
卷期: Volume 14, issue 1  

页码: 45-66

 

ISSN:0277-6693

 

年代: 1995

 

DOI:10.1002/for.3980140105

 

出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.

 

关键词: Johnson;Non‐normal;ARMA models;Slifker‐Shapiro

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

AbstractWe propose a model for time series with a general marginal distribution given by the Johnson family of distributions. We investigate for which Johnson distributions forecasting using the model is likely to be most effective compared to using a linear model. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the reliability of methods for determining which of the three Johnson forms is most appropriate for a given series. Finally, we give model fitting and forecasting results using the modeling procedure on a selection of simulated and real time series.

 

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