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Estimation of Quasi-Linear Trend and Seasonal Variation

 

作者: C.E. V. Leser,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1963)
卷期: Volume 58, issue 304  

页码: 1033-1043

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1963

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1963.10480684

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Given a series of quarterly data, estimates may be obtained for both trend and seasonal variation by minimising the sum, or more generally a linear combination, of two sums of squares, one of them based on the second differences between trend values, the other on the deviations of the observations from seasonally corrected trend values. Exact solutions are obtained for 8 and 12 observations, and an approximate solution applicable to longer time series is given. A numerical example is supplied, and the procedure outlined here is compared with the moving average method.

 

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