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A Markovian Model of Income Dynamics

 

作者: JohnJ. McCall,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1971)
卷期: Volume 66, issue 335  

页码: 439-447

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1971

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482283

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This study presents a Markovian analysis of the earnings mobility of prime working age males and females. Transition matrices were calculated for all those who moved from a low to a non-low earnings category (and vice versa) sometime during 1957–1966. These matrices were non-stationary. It was hypothesized that changes in the level of economic activity were the primary cause of non-stationarity. Regression analysis results were consistent with this hypothesis. Increased growth was more beneficial for male non-white movers than for whites. A significant proportion of individuals stayed in a low earnings category for the entire period. The proportion of non-white males that did so was significantly greater than the corresponding white proportion.

 

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