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Prediction of the pollen season with a cumulated activity method

 

作者: Kjell-Arne Larsson,  

 

期刊: Grana  (Taylor Available online 1993)
卷期: Volume 32, issue 2  

页码: 111-114

 

ISSN:0017-3134

 

年代: 1993

 

DOI:10.1080/00173139309429461

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

An attempt is made to forecast the start, the peak and the end of the pollen season. The cumulated activity method, a development of the temperature sum method, is used. Temperature (T) is transformed to activity (A) by the formula A = 2** ((T+g)/(10+h))-k where g, h and k are parameters (** indicates exponentiation). The method is tested using pollen and weather measurements from Stockholm for the years 1973–88. Of the eight pollen types tested, the best results are gained forUlmus, BetulaandPinus, with a prediction precision varying between three and six days. The method was less relevant forAlnusandQuercusand not satisfactory forCorylus, Poaceae andArtemisia.

 

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