AbstractThe exact response of mangrove shorelines to anticipated sea‐level rise will depend upon the balance between sedimentation and sea‐level change. Within the Top End of the Northern Territory of Australia there are extensive, relatively unmodified, tide‐dominated mangrove forests, where tidal processes redistribute sediment. Harbours, such as Darwin Harbour, and tidal rivers, such as the South Alligator River with its associated coastal and estuarine plains, represent opposite extremes in terms of Holocene sedimentary infill, and will respond differently to sea‐level rise. In Darwin Harbour, mangrove assemblages can be recognized in geomorphologically defined habitats. Similar topography within and between creeks implies morphodynamic equilibrium with tidal processes. Tidal reworking of sediment may maintain an equilibrial profile under gradually rising sea level, with resuspension of lower intertidal and subtidal muds and their redeposition within upper intertidal mangrove habitats. In contrast, the plains along the coast and tidal rivers draining into van Diemen Gulf developed during the post‐glacial marine transgression, and since sea level stabilized, around 6000 years ago, coastal plains have prograded. These broad plains are presently not extensively influenced by salt water, but are often at elevations close to, or even below, modern high‐tide levels. They may, therefore, revert to saline conditions particularly rapidly if the sea rises. The pattern of change may not be directly analogous to marine incursion experienced in the early Holocene, because broad plains have been able to prograde during the last 6000 years of relatively stabl