Combining experts' opinions using a normal‐wishart model
作者:
Michael P. Wiper,
Simon French,
期刊:
Journal of Forecasting
(WILEY Available online 1995)
卷期:
Volume 14,
issue 1
页码: 25-34
ISSN:0277-6693
年代: 1995
DOI:10.1002/for.3980140103
出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.
关键词: Bayesian updating;The Expert Problem;Normal‐Wishart models
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractThis paper examines how a Bayesian decision maker might update her distributions for continuous variablesXi, i=1, 2, …, upon hearing experts' forecasts expressed as quantiles. To utilize the relationship between the decision maker and experts, and to avoid problems associated with different scales and ranges of the variables, we assume that the decision maker transforms the experts' quantiles in terms of her own prior distribution for eachXi.A model using such a transformation is presented and its properties are examine
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