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VALIDATION OF PROBABILISTIC MODELS

 

作者: NIELSC. LIND,  

 

期刊: Civil Engineering Systems  (Taylor Available online 1996)
卷期: Volume 13, issue 3  

页码: 175-183

 

ISSN:0263-0257

 

年代: 1996

 

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970196

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Entropy;forecasting;information;generator;likelihood;models;probability;seismic;earthquake;validation;verification

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Probability statements in applied science cannot be verified, i.e., shown to be true. But, as shown, the models or methods that generate probability statements can be validated in the sense that they can be assessed using real or simulated data. The performance of probabilistic models can be compared in terms of likelihood, Shannon information or entropy. Likelihood and information provide equivalent measures of relative validity. Examples drawn from weather forecasting and seismic engineering illustrate the approach.

 

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