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A hybrid multi-model approach to river level forecasting

 

作者: LINDA SEE,   STAN OPENSHAW,  

 

期刊: Hydrological Sciences Journal  (Taylor Available online 2000)
卷期: Volume 45, issue 4  

页码: 523-536

 

ISSN:0262-6667

 

年代: 2000

 

DOI:10.1080/02626660009492354

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This paper presents four different approaches for integrating conventional and AI-based forecasting models to provide a hybridized solution to the continuous river level and flood prediction problem. Individual forecasting models were developed on a stand alone basis using historical time series data from the River Ouse in northern England. These include a hybrid neural network, a simple rule-based fuzzy logic model, an ARMA model and naive predictions (which use the current value as the forecast). The individual models were then integrated via four different approaches: calculation of an average, a Bayesian approach, and two fuzzy logic models, the first based purely on current and past river flow conditions and the second, a fuzzification of the crisp Bayesian method. Model performance was assessed using global statistics and a more specific flood related evaluation measure. The addition of fuzzy logic to the crisp Bayesian model yielded overall results that were superior to the other individual and integrated approaches.

 

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