Social scientists have long engaged in studying the racial transition of neighborhoods in urban areas. One aspect of such change that is often debated is the tipping point phenomenon. In this paper an attempt is made to formulate a model which captures this phenomenon and when it is tested against alternative models the results support the tipping point position. Furthermore, the model proposed is shown to be superior to simple extrapolation as a means, which would be useful to planners and others, for predicting the direction of future neighborhood change.