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Probabilities Based on Circumstantial Evidence

 

作者: D.J. Finney,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  （Taylor Available online 1977）
卷期: Volume 72, issue 358  

页码: 316-318

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1977

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480996

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Probability of guilt;Circumstantial evidence;Statistical independence

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

A recent paper by Smith and Charrow (1975) shows how easily misunderstandings about statistical independence can confuse assessment of the extent to which a combination of unusual traits reinforces evidence against a suspect. A simple example illustrates the importance to the calculation of a probability of exact specification of the way in which data and ancillary information are obtained.

 

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