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A comparative study of demand forecasting techniques for military helicopter spare parts

 

作者: Robert E. Markland,  

 

期刊: Naval Research Logistics Quarterly  (WILEY Available online 1970)
卷期: Volume 17, issue 1  

页码: 103-119

 

ISSN:0028-1441

 

年代: 1970

 

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800170110

 

出版商: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

AbstractThis paper deals with techniques applicable to predicting spare parts demand for military helicopters. The military helicopter is a distinct weapons system, whose unique configuration may preclude the direct application of forecasting techniques which have proved successful for other weapon systems. Furthermore, although the military helicopter has become extremely important tactically in modern warfare, it has received scant attention in terms of research concerning its supply support.Specifically, this paper summarizes research done to measure and compare the forecasting accuracy of six mathematical models, as they were applied to three prominent military helicopters. In addition, the paper describes attempts that were made to define, where possible, the conditions under which a specific forecasting technique might be applicable. In general, it is shown that the most accurate set of helicopter spare parts demand forecasts are produced by a second order polynomial exponential smoothing model. This model is observed to have most accurately described the highly volatile, and upward‐trended demand time series which were the subject of the stud

 

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