ObjectiveTo examine the correlation among the National Board of Medical Examiners subject examination, the US Medical Licensure Examination step 1 scores, and grade point average and to determine if poor performance could be predicted by the US Medical Licensure Examination step 1 score and grade point average.MethodsThe subject examination scores of 148 third-year medical students were compared with their US Medical Licensure Examination step 1 scores and grade point averages. Scores below the 20th percentile were defined as poor performance.ResultsThere was a significant correlation between the US Medical Licensure Examination score and the subject examination score (r= .6,P< .001). The correlation with grade point average was also significant (r= .57,P< .001).Conclusion:The US Medical Licensure Examination step 1 performance, grade point average, and performance on the subject examination are all correlated. However, use of the US Medical Licensure Examination step 1 scores and grade point averages to identify all students at risk was associated with a high false-positive rate at our institution.