Identifying and characterizing cycles and other systematic regularities in economic time series data
作者:
JamesB. Taylor,
Lolafaye Coyne,
期刊:
Journal of Interdisciplinary Cycle Research
(Taylor Available online 1980)
卷期:
Volume 11,
issue 2
页码: 145-160
ISSN:0022-1945
年代: 1980
DOI:10.1080/09291018009359697
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: economic cycles;polynomial regression analysis
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Extant methods for identifying longer‐term cycles in economic and social time series are in various ways limited. Spectral analysis assumes stationarity of variance and reasonably consistent periodicity, while moving average methods are susceptible to judgmental bias and other artifacts. This paper explores the use of stepwise polynomial regression analysis as a method for deciding, on statistical grounds, whether a longer‐term cycle exists; and for characterizing its specific form. Used with U.S. economic and social data, the polynomial regression analysis provides evidence for the existence of two longer‐terms values corresponding to the Juglar cycle and the Kuznets cycle; no evidence for a “long wave”; Kondratieff cycle is found. The cross‐series findings also suggest that variations in war and war preparedness play a role in generating such cyclic effects.
点击下载:
PDF (712KB)
返 回