A Descriptive Model for Predicting Spring Emergence ofHeliothis zeaPopulations in North Carolina12
作者:
J. A. Logan,
R. E. Stinner,
R. L. Rabb,
J. S. Bacheler,
期刊:
Environmental Entomology
(OUP Available online 1979)
卷期:
Volume 8,
issue 1
页码: 141-146
ISSN:0046-225X
年代: 1979
DOI:10.1093/ee/8.1.141
出版商: Oxford University Press
数据来源: OUP
摘要:
A conceptual model is formulated which describes overwinter developmental rate forHeliothis zea(Boddie) pupae. An analytic function for prediction of spring emergence as a function of temperature is developed through the technique of matched asymptotic expansions. The resultant model is fit to observed post-diapause developmental rates measured at various constant temperature regimes. From these data, parameters were estimated for 10, 50, and 90 percentile emergence. A field spring emergence model is presented which includes the temporal variation in post-diapause morphogenetic development, the spatial distribution of overwintering pupae in the soil, and the spatial/temporal distribution of soil temperature. Model results are compared to an observed field emergence.
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