Multivariate nearest‐neighbour forecasts of ems exchange rates
作者:
B. Mizrach,
期刊:
Journal of Applied Econometrics
(WILEY Available online 1992)
卷期:
Volume 7,
issue S1
页码: 151-163
ISSN:0883-7252
年代: 1992
DOI:10.1002/jae.3950070511
出版商: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractExchange rate modelling has been a persistent puzzle for international economists. Forecasts from popular models for the exchange rate generally fail to improve upon the random walk out‐of‐sample. While a multivariate nonparametric approach provides useful information about exchange rates, the model produces forecasts superior to the random walk for only one of the three EMS currencies examined. Using a statistic developed in Mizrach (1991), I find that the forecast improvement, a 4.5 percent reduction in mean squared error for the Lira in daily returns, is not statistically significant. A cross‐validation exercise suggests that the improvement is also not r
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