Improved NCAA Basketball Tournament Modeling via Point Spread and Team Strength Information
作者:
BradleyP. Carlin,
期刊:
The American Statistician
(Taylor Available online 1996)
卷期:
Volume 50,
issue 1
页码: 39-43
ISSN:0003-1305
年代: 1996
DOI:10.1080/00031305.1996.10473540
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Computer ratings;Oddsmaking;Sports outcome prediction.
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Several models for estimating the probability that a given team in an NCAA basketball tournament emerges as the regional champion were presented by Schwertman, Mc-Cready, and Howard. In this article we improve these probability models by taking advantage of external information concerning the relative strengths of the teams and the point spreads available at the start of the tournament for the first round games. The result is a collection of regional championship probabilities that are specific to a given region and tournament year. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1994 NCAA basketball tournament.
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