Three modelling approaches for seasonal streamflow droughts in southern Africa: the use of censored data
作者:
EMMAL. TATE,
STEPHENN. FREEMAN,
期刊:
Hydrological Sciences Journal
(Taylor Available online 2000)
卷期:
Volume 45,
issue 1
页码: 27-42
ISSN:0262-6667
年代: 2000
DOI:10.1080/02626660009492304
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Three approaches to modelling the duration of streamflow droughts at eight southern African sites are considered; a non-parametric method (that of Kaplan-Meier) is compared with the fitting of two simple parametric models: the exponential and Weibull. All techniques allow the instantaneous probability of a drought coming to an end to differ between wet and dry seasons, using the concept of censored data. Model-fitting is discussed, and the Kaplan-Meier estimates permit an assessment of the fit of the parametric models, with the aim of finding a parsimonious model for the data, which can be used for predictive purposes. In most cases considered herein, either the exponential or Weibull approach is found to be adequate.
点击下载:
PDF (1085KB)
返 回