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Three modelling approaches for seasonal streamflow droughts in southern Africa: the use of censored data

 

作者: EMMAL. TATE,   STEPHENN. FREEMAN,  

 

期刊: Hydrological Sciences Journal  (Taylor Available online 2000)
卷期: Volume 45, issue 1  

页码: 27-42

 

ISSN:0262-6667

 

年代: 2000

 

DOI:10.1080/02626660009492304

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Three approaches to modelling the duration of streamflow droughts at eight southern African sites are considered; a non-parametric method (that of Kaplan-Meier) is compared with the fitting of two simple parametric models: the exponential and Weibull. All techniques allow the instantaneous probability of a drought coming to an end to differ between wet and dry seasons, using the concept of censored data. Model-fitting is discussed, and the Kaplan-Meier estimates permit an assessment of the fit of the parametric models, with the aim of finding a parsimonious model for the data, which can be used for predictive purposes. In most cases considered herein, either the exponential or Weibull approach is found to be adequate.

 

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