Conjugate Priors for Exponential Families Having Quadratic Variance Functions
作者:
Guido Consonni,
Piero Veronese,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1992)
卷期:
Volume 87,
issue 420
页码: 1123-1127
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1992
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10476268
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Bayesian statistics;Least favorable prior;Partial prior information
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Consider a natural exponential family parameterized byθ. It is well known that the standard conjugate prior onθis characterized by a condition of posterior linearity for the expectation of the model mean parameterμ. Often, however, this family is not parameterized in terms ofθbut rather in terms of a more usual parameter, such at the meanμ. The main question we address is: Under what conditions does astandard conjugate prior on μinduce a linear posterior expectation onμitself? We prove that essentially this happens iff the exponential family has quadratic variance function. A consequence of this result is that the standard conjugate onμcoincides with the prior onμinduced by the standard conjugate onθiff the variance function is quadratic. The rest of the article covers more specific issues related to conjugate priors for exponential families. In particular, we analyze the monotonicity of the expected posterior variance forμwith respect to the sample size and the hyperparameter “prior sample size” that appears in the conjugate distribution. Finally, we consider a situation in which a class of priors onθ, say Γ, is specified by some moment conditions. We revisit and extend previous results relating conjugate priors to Γ-least favorable distributions and Γ-minimax estimators.
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