ObjectiveTo estimate the long-term probability of hysterectomy after sterilization according to demographic and clinical characteristics before the procedure.MethodsWe used a prospective, multi-center cohort study of 10,698 women undergoing tubal sterilization to examine the cumulative probability of hysterectomy up to 14 years after sterilization. Independent risk factors for subsequent hysterectomy were examined using the life-table approach and the Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsThe cumulative probability of undergoing hysterectomy 14 years after sterilization was 17%. The highest long-term cumulative probabilities of hysterectomy occurred among women who, at the time of sterilization, reported a history of endometriosis (35%) or were older than 30 years and reported prolonged bleeding during menses (46%). Multivariate modeling demonstrated an independently increased risk of hysterectomy among women who, at the time of tubal sterilization, reported a history of heavy menstrual flow (relative risk [RR] 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1, 1.7), severe menstrual pain (RR 1.3; 95% CI 1.1, 1.6), bleeding of more than 7 days during menstrual cycles (RR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1, 2.8), pelvic inflammatory disease (RR 1.3; 95% CI 1.04, 1.7), ovarian cysts (RR 1.6; 95% CI 1.2, 2.0), endometriosis (RR 2.5; 95% CI 1.7, 3.9), or uterine leiomyomata (RR 2.7; 95% CI 2.0, 3.7).ConclusionsAlthough women with gynecologic disorders before tubal sterilization were at greater risk of hysterectomy during the 14 years after sterilization than were women without these disorders, the majority of sterilized women in both categories did not undergo subsequent hysterectomy.