首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 Evaluation of Census Survival Rates in Estimating Intercensal State Net Migration
Evaluation of Census Survival Rates in Estimating Intercensal State Net Migration

 

作者: JamesD. Tarver,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1962)
卷期: Volume 57, issue 300  

页码: 841-862

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1962

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1962.10500821

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Census survival rates measure intercensal state and county net migration, by age, color, and sex. They have certain technical advantages over other residual methods, specifically the exclusive virtue of a built-in technique which corrects for net census undercount by age, including underenumeration and misstatements of age. Using three sets of estimated “closed” native populations and reported United States deaths as standards, this study evaluates three sets of national census survival rates. The unavailability of appropriate figures make it impossible to determine precisely which is most accurate. Then, it analyzes the effects of adjusting census survival rates for national-state mortality differentials in measuring intercensal net migration and deaths for states. Next it examines differences in state net migration and mortality arising from the use of the forward, reverse, and average formulas. The study finds insignificant differences between adjusted and unadjusted survival rates and among the forward, reverse, and average formulas. Finally, it estimates net interstate migration for native whites, total whites, and nonwhites, by age and sex, for the 1940–50 decade, using census survival rates, and compares the results with the more correct estimates for all ages obtained with vital statistics data. By using the formula which most accurately duplicates “vital statistics” deaths over all ages, one obtains the most precise intercensal state net migration estimates by age groups.

 

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