AbstractMeasures of seriousness of the conviction offense and prior criminal record are strong correlates of sentences. This is consistent with a desert orientation to sentencing. Competing sentencing theories emphasize concepts of risk and incapacitation, but their roles in sentencing decisions have received less attention.This study focused on judicial risk assessments and on the concept of stakes. Both variables plausibly are related to incapacitative intents of judges. Our hypotheses that the risk and stakes measures used are relatively independent and correlated with, and have an interaction effect on, decision outcomes were supported. Both judges' assessments of risk and our stakes scale accounted for substantial variation in the decision to incarcerate. Time actually served in confinement also was related substantially to stakes, risk, and their interaction.Implications of the stakes and risk concepts for future guidelines development and decision study in criminal justice are discussed.