首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 Probabilistic Prediction
Probabilistic Prediction

 

作者: HarryV. Roberts,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1965)
卷期: Volume 60, issue 309  

页码: 50-62

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1965

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1965.10480774

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

The posterior distribution for parameters of a data distribution is usually the major objective of a Bayesian statistical analysis. Relatively little attention has been given to the fact that either a prior or a posterior distribution implies a marginal distribution, which may be called a “predictive distribution,” for outcomes of any sample not yet observed. Predictive distributions have been mainly applied to design problems, such as determination of optimal sample size. In this paper tentative suggestions are made for applications to statistical inference, especially problems of appropriateness, selection, interpretation, and validation of formal models.

 

点击下载:  PDF (968KB)



返 回