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Flood forecasting with a watershed model: a new method of parameter updating

 

作者: XIAOLIU YANG,   CLAUDE MICHEL,  

 

期刊: Hydrological Sciences Journal  (Taylor Available online 2000)
卷期: Volume 45, issue 4  

页码: 537-546

 

ISSN:0262-6667

 

年代: 2000

 

DOI:10.1080/02626660009492355

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Flood forecasting is of prime importance when it comes to reducing the possible number of lives lost to storm-induced floods. Because rainfall-runoff models are far from being perfect, hydrologists need to continuously update outputs from the rainfall-runoff model they use, in order to adapt to the actual emergency situation. This paper introduces a new updating procedure that can be combined with conceptual rainfall-runoff models for flood forecasting purposes. Conceptual models are highly nonlinear and cannot easily accommodate theoretically optimal methods such as Kalman filtering. Most methods developed so far mainly update the states of the system, i.e. the contents of the reservoirs involved in the rainfall-runoff model. The new parameter updating method proves to be superior to a standard error correction method on four watersheds whose floods can cause damage to the greater Paris area. Moreover, further developments of the approach are possible, especially along the idea of combining parameter updating with assimilation of additional data such as soil moisture data from field measurements and/or from remote sensing.

 

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