首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 Multivariate Time Series Projections of Parameterized Age-Specific Fertility Rates
Multivariate Time Series Projections of Parameterized Age-Specific Fertility Rates

 

作者: PatrickA. Thompson,   WilliamR. Bell,   JohnF. Long,   RobertB. Miller,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1989)
卷期: Volume 84, issue 407  

页码: 689-699

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1989

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478822

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Fertility projection;Multivariate ARIMA models

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Projection of individual age-specific fertility rates is a forecasting problem of high dimension. We solve this dimensionality problem by using parametric curves to approximate the annual age-specific rates and a multivariate time series model to forecast the curve parameters. These yield forecasts of future fertility curves, which are then used to compute age-specific fertility rate forecasts. This reduces the dimensionality of the forecasting problem and also guarantees that long-run projections of age-specific fertility rates will exhibit a smooth shape across age similar to historical data. Short-term projections are improved by also using simple techniques to forecast the deviations of the fitted curves from the actual rates. The article applies this approach to age-specific fertility data for U.S. white women from 1921–1984. The resulting forecasts are examined, and the multivariate model is used to investigate possible relations between the curve parameters, expressed as the total fertility rate, the mean age of childbearing, and the standard deviation of age at childbearing. The only strong relationship found is the contemporaneous relationship between the mean and standard deviation of age at childbearing. A variation of this approach, in conjunction with traditional demographic judgment, was used in a recent set of U.S. Census Bureau population projections. We discuss this implementation and compare the Census Bureau projections with those produced directly from the model presented here.

 

点击下载:  PDF (1933KB)



返 回