Automated Discovery in Managerial Problem Formulation: Formation of Causal Hypotheses for Cognitive Mapping
作者:
Beth Billman,
James F. Courtney,
期刊:
Decision Sciences
(WILEY Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 24,
issue 1
页码: 23-41
ISSN:0011-7315
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1993.tb00460.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
关键词: Decision Processes;Decision Support Systems;and Human Information Processing
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
ABSTRACTDevelopment of knowledge acquisition techniques known as automated discovery systems has occurred in deep and narrow domains of knowledge. Automated discovery is the generation of new knowledge by a computer system on its own, without the help of another knowledge source. This paper describes research and validation of an automated discovery system for a wide and shallow domain—business management. The system continues recent advances in expert systems research which have enhanced cognitive mapping, a problem formulation tool. The system perceives the behavior of distal variables in the environment through probabilistic cues‐to‐causality, and generates previously unknown hypotheses by aggregating the probabilities into a single criterion of causal relatedness. The system is validated against the source code of a simulated managerial environment, and causal relationships posited by decision makers experienced in the play of the gaming simu
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