Bayesian analysis of theT-year events for flood data fitted by a three-parameter lognormal distribution
作者:
L. M. Lye,
S. K. Sinha,
C. BooyJ,
期刊:
Civil Engineering Systems
(Taylor Available online 1988)
卷期:
Volume 5,
issue 2
页码: 81-86
ISSN:0263-0257
年代: 1988
DOI:10.1080/02630258808970508
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Bayesian approximation;flood data;Lindley's expansion;lognormal distribution
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The three-parameter lognormal distribution is widely used in hydrology to fit maximum annual flood events. The method most commonly used to estimate the parameters and 7”-year flood event is the method of maximum likelihood. In this paper, Bayes estimates of the parameters and of the 7”-yearflood and their posterior variances of estimates are obtained by using Lindley's Bayesian approximation procedure. These estimates are then compared to estimates obtained by the method of maximum likelihood. Twelve flood series from all over Canada that are shown to be well-fitted by the three-parameter lognormal distribution are used as numerical examples. In all cases the posterior variances of the Bayes estimates of the 7”-year flood events are less than the corresponding variances of their maximum likelihood counterparts.
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