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The Incubation Period of Kuru

 

作者: Jérôme Huillard d’Aignaux,   Simon Cousens,   Jean Maccario,   Dominique Costagliola,   Michael Alpers,   Peter Smith,   Annick Alpérovitch,  

 

期刊: Epidemiology  (OVID Available online 2002)
卷期: Volume 13, issue 4  

页码: 402-408

 

ISSN:1044-3983

 

年代: 2002

 

出版商: OVID

 

关键词: Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease;statistical model;incubation period;kuru;prion;transmissible spongiform encephalopathies

 

数据来源: OVID

 

摘要:

Background.Kuru is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that was identified in Papua New Guinea in the late 1950s. Several thousand cases of the disease occurred during a period of several decades. Epidemiologic investigations implicated ritual endocannibalistic funeral feasts as the likely route through which the infectious agent was spread.Methods.We estimated the incubation period distribution of kuru using a back-calculation model and explored the relation among sex, age at infection, and incubation period. Key assumptions in the model were that the number of new kuru infections in a year was proportional to the number of kuru cases dying that year, and that the epidemic arose from a single case of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease occurring around 1900.Results.The mean incubation period of kuru was estimated at between 10.3 and 13.2 years. Point estimates of the 90th percentile ranged from 21.1 to 27.0 years. The incubation period in females was estimated to be shorter than that in males. The shortest incubation periods were estimated in adult women, who may have been exposed to the largest doses of infectious material.Conclusions.Our findings suggest that the relatively young age of cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease probably reflects increased levels of exposure in young people, rather than age-dependency in the incubation period.

 

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