ObjectiveTo develop a method based on admission day data for predicting patient outcome status as independently functional, compromised functional, or dead.DesignProspectively acquired development and validation samples.SettingA pediatric intensive care unit located in a tertiary care center.PatientsConsecutive admissions (n equals 1,663) for predictor development, and consecutive admissions (n equals 1,153) for predictor validation.MethodsPediatric Risk of Mortality score, baseline Pediatric Overall Performance Category score, age, operative status, and primary diagnosis classified into ten organ systems and nine etiologies were recorded at the time of intensive care unit admission. Predictor was developed by stepwise polychotomous logistic regression analysis for the outcomes functional, compromised, and dead. Model fit was evaluated by chi-square statistics; prediction performance was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and classification table analysis of observed vs. predicted outcomes.Measurements and Main ResultsThe resulting predictor included Pediatric Risk of Mortality, baseline Pediatric Overall Performance Category, operative status, age, and diagnostic factors from four systems (cardiovascular, respiratory, neurologic, gastrointestinal), and six etiologies (infection, trauma, drug overdose, allergy/immunology, diabetes, miscellaneous/undetermined). Its application to the validation sample yielded good agreement between the total number expected and the observed outcomes for each state (chi-square equals 3.16, 2 degrees of freedom, p equals .206), with area indices of 0.96 plus minus 0.01 for discrimination of fully functional vs. the combination of the two poor outcome states (compromised or death), and 0.94 plus minus 0.02 for discrimination of fully or compromised functional vs. death. The 3 times 3 classification resulted in correct classification rates of 83.2%, 74.4%, and 81.3%, for the outcomes functional, compromised, and death, respectively.ConclusionsPrediction of three outcome states using physiologic status, baseline functional level, and broad-based diagnostic groupings at admission is feasible and may improve the relevance of quality of care assessment.(Crit Care Med 1996; 24:78-85)