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Using Heuristics to Evaluate Projects: The Case of Ranking Projects by IRR

 

作者: DANIEL ASQUTTH,   JENNIFERE. BETHEL,  

 

期刊: The Engineering Economist  (Taylor Available online 1995)
卷期: Volume 40, issue 3  

页码: 287-294

 

ISSN:0013-791X

 

年代: 1995

 

DOI:10.1080/00137919508903154

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This paper examines the use of a simple heuristic for evaluating projects. We posit that ranking projects by IRR and rejecting marginal projects can be superior to a NPV rule if 1) project managers have incentives to overstate cash flow forecasts that occur late in a project's life, 2) project rankings determine project acceptance because not all positive NPV project's are accepted, and 3) a project's IRR is greater than the WACC. In these instances, the IRR heuristic undervalues distant cash flows and thus, reduces project managers' incentives to positively bias forecasts.

 

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