Survival at a mean height of 2.5 m was studied in eight experimental series comprising provenances ofPinus sylvestris(L.). A ninth series of planting experiments was used for verifying functions predicting local provenance survival. The estimated survival of local provenances declined as the temperature sum decreased, with the decline being most rapid close to timberline. Variation in survival within the same climatic region was large, especially in moderately harsh areas. Southward transfer increased survival. Transfer effects differed depending on the temperature sum at the growth site; the greatest effects were found in moderately harsh areas. Altitudinal transfer effects were small and inconsistent. Local provenance survival differed between series. Local provenance survival varied depending on topography and humidity. Transfer effects did not vary between series, nor were they influenced by site factors. Prediction confidence limits were used to estimate the risk for failure of single reforestation attempts.