NON‐LINEAR TIME SERIES MODELLING AND DISTRIBUTIONAL FLEXIBILITY
作者:
Jenny N. Lye,
Vance L. Martin,
期刊:
Journal of Time Series Analysis
(WILEY Available online 1994)
卷期:
Volume 15,
issue 1
页码: 65-84
ISSN:0143-9782
年代: 1994
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9892.1994.tb00178.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
关键词: Non‐linear time series;generalized exponential distributions;skewness;fat‐tails;multimodality;maximum likelihood estimation
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
Abstract.Most of the existing work in non‐linear time series analysis has concentrated on generating flexible functional models by specifying non‐linear specifications for the mean of a particular process, without much, if any, attention given to the distributional properties of the model. However, as Martin (J. Time Ser. Anal.13 (1992), 79–94) has shown, greater flexibility in perhaps a more natural way can be achieved by consideration of distributions from the generalized exponential class. This paper represents an extension of the earlier work of Martin by introducing a flexible class of non‐linear time series models which can capture a wide range of empirical behaviour such as skewed, fat‐tailed and even multimodal distributions. This class of models is referred to as generalized exponential non‐linear time series. A maximum likelihood algorithm is given for estimating the parameters of the model and the framework is applied to estimating the distribution of the movements of the ex
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