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NON‐LINEAR TIME SERIES MODELLING AND DISTRIBUTIONAL FLEXIBILITY

 

作者: Jenny N. Lye,   Vance L. Martin,  

 

期刊: Journal of Time Series Analysis  (WILEY Available online 1994)
卷期: Volume 15, issue 1  

页码: 65-84

 

ISSN:0143-9782

 

年代: 1994

 

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9892.1994.tb00178.x

 

出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

 

关键词: Non‐linear time series;generalized exponential distributions;skewness;fat‐tails;multimodality;maximum likelihood estimation

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

Abstract.Most of the existing work in non‐linear time series analysis has concentrated on generating flexible functional models by specifying non‐linear specifications for the mean of a particular process, without much, if any, attention given to the distributional properties of the model. However, as Martin (J. Time Ser. Anal.13 (1992), 79–94) has shown, greater flexibility in perhaps a more natural way can be achieved by consideration of distributions from the generalized exponential class. This paper represents an extension of the earlier work of Martin by introducing a flexible class of non‐linear time series models which can capture a wide range of empirical behaviour such as skewed, fat‐tailed and even multimodal distributions. This class of models is referred to as generalized exponential non‐linear time series. A maximum likelihood algorithm is given for estimating the parameters of the model and the framework is applied to estimating the distribution of the movements of the ex

 

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