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A Characterization of the Poisson Distribution and the Probability of Winning a Game

 

作者: JosephB. Keller,  

 

期刊: The American Statistician  (Taylor Available online 1994)
卷期: Volume 48, issue 4  

页码: 294-298

 

ISSN:0003-1305

 

年代: 1994

 

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1994.10476084

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Baseball scores;Losing probability;Soccer scores;Tie probability

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

The probabilityP(λ, μ) that a team with mean score λ beats a team with mean score μ is calculated when the score of each team is Poisson distributed. It is found that ∂P(λ, μ)/∂λ is equal to the probability of a tie. When this equality holds for any distribution of the score of the team with mean μ, it is shown that the score of the team with mean λ must be Poisson distributed. The Poisson distribution is shown to fit certain baseball data, and it is also applied to some soccer data.

 

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