A Characterization of the Poisson Distribution and the Probability of Winning a Game
作者:
JosephB. Keller,
期刊:
The American Statistician
(Taylor Available online 1994)
卷期:
Volume 48,
issue 4
页码: 294-298
ISSN:0003-1305
年代: 1994
DOI:10.1080/00031305.1994.10476084
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Baseball scores;Losing probability;Soccer scores;Tie probability
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The probabilityP(λ, μ) that a team with mean score λ beats a team with mean score μ is calculated when the score of each team is Poisson distributed. It is found that ∂P(λ, μ)/∂λ is equal to the probability of a tie. When this equality holds for any distribution of the score of the team with mean μ, it is shown that the score of the team with mean λ must be Poisson distributed. The Poisson distribution is shown to fit certain baseball data, and it is also applied to some soccer data.
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