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Criteria for Capital Investment: An Approach Through Decision Theory

 

作者: AdelsonR. M.,  

 

期刊: Journal of the Operational Research Society  (Taylor Available online 1965)
卷期: Volume 16, issue 1  

页码: 19-50

 

ISSN:0160-5682

 

年代: 1965

 

DOI:10.1057/jors.1965.3

 

出版商: Taylor&Francis

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

AbstractThe arbitrary character of such concepts as“Discounted Present Worth”, which are often advocated as methods of assessing and comparing investment opportunities, is discussed in Part 1 of this paper. It is also pointed out that, by their nature, these concepts are not particularly well adapted to situations in which“risk”is an important factor. In order to develop a method in which a logical approach to risk can be adopted, an understanding of the basic problem of Decision Making under Uncertainty is required. An introduction to this subject forms Part 2 of this paper. In Part 3 the problem of Plant Investment under Risk is considered, and a rational approach to this is developed. The importance of the“portfolio”concept in such problems is particularly demonstrated.

 

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