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Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

 

作者: Paul Joe,   Cliff Crozier,   Norman Donaldson,   Dave Etkin,   Erik Brun,   Steve Clodman,   Jim Abraham,   Stan Siok,   Henri‐Paul Biron,   Mike Leduc,   Phil Chadwick,   Steve Knott,   Jamie Archibald,   Glenn Vickers,   Steve Blackwell,   Rick Drouillard,   Alan Whitman,   Harold Brooks,   Nick Kouwen,   Richard Verret,   Gilles Fournier,   Bob Kochtubajda,  

 

期刊: Atmosphere-Ocean  (Taylor Available online 1995)
卷期: Volume 33, issue 2  

页码: 249-302

 

ISSN:0705-5900

 

年代: 1995

 

DOI:10.1080/07055900.1995.9649534

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.

 

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