Bayes-like Decision Making with Upper and Lower Probabilities
作者:
Marco Wolfenson,
TerrenceL. Fine,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1982)
卷期:
Volume 77,
issue 377
页码: 80-88
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1982
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1982.10477769
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Bayesian decision making;Belief functions;Lower envelopes;Coherence;Lower probabilities
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
We consider the use of interval-valued probabilities to represent the support lent to the hypothesis that the parameter value θ lies in a subsetAof the parameter set Θ when we observex, know the likelihoods {fΘ: θεΘ}, and have some prior information concerning the parameter. Our model for prior information is that of a salient prior distribution in which we have little confidence, although we have much less confidence in any alternative prior. We consider notions of acceptable and coherent decision making as well as notions of being able to achieve a Bayes rule and least commitment. Throughout we are motivated to preserve some of the elements of Bayesian decision making without thereby committing ourselves to unwarranted claims of knowledge.
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