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CREATING AND USING CAUSAL MODELS

 

作者: RICHARDJ. DOYLE,  

 

期刊: Applied Artificial Intelligence  (Taylor Available online 1989)
卷期: Volume 3, issue 2-3  

页码: 143-166

 

ISSN:0883-9514

 

年代: 1989

 

DOI:10.1080/08839518908949922

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

I describe an approach to the problem of forming hypotheses about hidden mechanisms within devices—the “black box” problem for physical systems. The approach involves enumerating different causal structures for devices, placing an ordering on these hypothesis types, and carefully controlling the construction of hypotheses, as well as enumerating a set of physical and causal constraints to prune hypotheses. I relate in detail the performance of an implemented causal modeling system on the surprisingly puzzling pocket tire gauge. Results from several examples indicate that the ideas presented support capabilities for maintaining manageably sized hypothesis sets and for making fine distinctions among hypotheses.

 

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