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Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models for Birth Forecasting

 

作者: JoãoLuiz Maurity Saboia,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  （Taylor Available online 1977）
卷期: Volume 72, issue 358  

页码: 264-270

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1977

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480989

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Birth time series;arima models;Norwegian births;Population models;Forecasting

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are developed for birth time series, and their relationship with classical models for population growth is investigated. Parsimonious versions for the ARIMA models are obtained which retain the most important pieces of information including the length of generation of the population. The technique is applied to birth time series data for Norway.

 

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