We studied the termination shock near the ecliptic, and near 35° latitude on the upwind side of the heliosphere. The shock location is solar cycle dependent; the shock moves outwards and inwards over timescales of a solar cycle in response to the variations in the average solar wind speed. The maximum distance occurs during the rising phase of the solar cycle, and the minimum distance during the declining phase; the amplitude increases with the latitude. Shock parameters are distinctly different when the shock moves outwards or inwards. If Voyager 1 did cross the termination shock in 2002.6, the spacecraft would likely cross the shock at least two more times before 2010. If Voyager 1 did not cross the termination shock in 2002, it might still do so very soon. © 2004 American Institute of Physics