AbstractMonte Carlo simulations of fatigue in welded joints have been performed using an approach which combines a model for initiation with a multiple surface crack propagation model. The results have been compared with experiments on T‐plate welded joints in which initiation and propagation of surface cracks were monitored using potential drop techniques. Predictions of initiation life using a local strain approach were conservative. Despite this underprediction of initiation life, predictions of total fatigue life were very good as a consequence of accurate simulations of propagation life and the fact that initiation represented on average only 12 to 22% of total life, depending on stress level. The initiation model considered variability due to the local weld toe angle and radius, and material strain–life behaviour. The only variability considered in the propagation analysis was the position and timing of initiation events, which leads to variability in coalescence. The underprediction of the variability in propagation and total lives was attributed to the underprediction of initiation life and the fact that out‐of‐plane coalescence effects were