The legal battles employed as a strategy to secure increased environmental safeguards identified by the technical studies demonstrate the role of public opinion in shaping federal actions. This article approaches the question of risk from OCS oil production activities by discussing the methodology developed to identify the probability of impact to the south shore of Long Island from the potential of an oil spill, either from drilling or transport activities. A set of probability curves were developed in accordance with seasonal climatic and current patterns in order to establish a range of hazard zones to enable the development of regulatory policy for the location and relocation of shipping lanes that would minimize direct impact to the near shore waters and coastline of Long Island.