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Prediction Error and Its Estimation for Subset-Selected Models

 

作者: EllenB. Roecker,  

 

期刊: Technometrics  (Taylor Available online 1991)
卷期: Volume 33, issue 4  

页码: 459-468

 

ISSN:0040-1706

 

年代: 1991

 

DOI:10.1080/00401706.1991.10484873

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Cross-validation;Data splitting;Linear regression;Stochastic predictor variables

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Strategies are compared for development of a linear regression model and the subsequent assessment of its predictive ability. Simulations were performed as a designed experiment over a range of data structures. Approaches using a forward selection of variables resulted in slightly smaller prediction errors and less biased estimators of predictive accuracy than all possible subsets selection but often did not improve on the full model. Random and balanced data splitting resulted in increased prediction errors and estimators with large mean squared error. To maximize predictive accuracy while retaining a reliable estimate of that accuracy, it is recommended that the entire sample usually he used for model development and assessment.

 

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