Weather‐based models to predict the population densities of melon fruit fly,Dacus cucurbitaeCoq.
作者:
C. Inayatullah,
L. Khan,
Manzoor Ul‐Haq,
Ata Ul‐Mohsin,
期刊:
Tropical Pest Management
(Taylor Available online 1991)
卷期:
Volume 37,
issue 3
页码: 211-215
ISSN:0143-6147
年代: 1991
DOI:10.1080/09670879109371584
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Forecasting models;control;population dynamics;Trypetidae;Diptera;Insecta;Pakistan
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Based on the weekly male catches in pheromone traps and weather data for 2 years (1985, 1986), regression models were developed to predict the densities of melon fruit fly,Dacus cucurbitaeCoq., which is an important pest of cucurbit and solanaceous fruits. Among the simple linear regression models, the model SQRT (male counts + 1) = —5.37+0.75 (mean daily temperature in degrees Celsius) was the best, as it explained the highest (68%) variability. The model log(male counts + 1) = —7.54 + 0.35 (maximum temperature) + 0.63 (minimum temperature) —0.02 (maximum × minimum temperature) explained 80% variability, and was considered to be the best for forecasting fruit fly populations.
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