AbstractThis article presents a system model to analyze the solid waste disposal problem in New York State. The model shows that the solid waste system will go through a costly transition from a landfill‐dominated mode of disposal to other disposal alternatives. The solid waste budget has to rise sharply during the transition. Solid waste expenses are financed by local taxes and state financial aid. If local and state governments do not respond rapidly to higher budget requirements, illegal disposal will increase and the total cost of transition will rise. Rapid response of the local authorities to increase the solid waste budget and to lower solid waste generation per capita is necessary to manage the transition with a lower total cost and less illegal disposa