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1. |
The Art and science of long‐range forecasting |
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Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union,
Volume 61,
Issue 19,
1980,
Page 449-450
Jerome Namias,
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摘要:
Ask meteorologists about the reliability of long‐range forecasts, and you get a broad spectrum of opinions. Some say that there is no skill whatsoever in forecasts for a month or season in advance, while others apply the term ‘marginal’ skill or just slightly better than chance. A few overenthusiastic practitioners are apt to make extravagant claims, even to claim ability to forecast detailed weather for a given day, weeks ahead. The truth, determined by rigid statistical verification, lies somewhere between these extreme viewpoints. Certainly the modest success currently achievable has a long way to go before the accomplishment of really reliable long‐range forecasts. Taking 50% as chance (climatological probability), something on the order of 65% or 70% for monthly and seasonal forecasts is a reasonable figure, although temperature is easier to predict than precipitation because of more temporal persistence and greater coherence in space. This skill matches or exceeds that of other geophysical predictions, or economic fo
ISSN:0002-8606
DOI:10.1029/EO061i019p00449
年代:1980
数据来源: WILEY
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2. |
Evolution and utilization of Magsat |
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Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union,
Volume 61,
Issue 19,
1980,
Page 450-450
Martin F. Kane,
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摘要:
For a variety of reasons, some circumstantial, I have been acquainted with the development of the concept of satellite measurement of the terrestrial magnetic field since nearly its beginning. It was with more than usual interest therefore that I read the account by Langel, in the September 18 issue ofEOS, of the developments that have led to the impending launch of Magsat. In reflecting on the article however, I feel that there are two omissions in Langel's account, which if not vital to an accurate picture of these developments, at least add a reality, particularly to that aspect of Magsat that is concerned with anomalies of crustal origin.The first omission concerns the pre‐1970 activities, when the concept was in its earliest stages. It was during this period that a collaboration arose between Gordon Andreasen of the U.S. Geological Survey and Joseph Cain, then of NASA, presently with the U.S. Geological Survey. This collaboration led to the earliest attempts to isolate magnetic anomalies that have their origin in the earth's crust. Andreasen and Cain were joined by Isidore Zietz of the Survey, who drew on his own pioneering experiences in aeromagnetics to add valuable insights to the efforts. As with all attempts of this type, the earliest results met with varying degrees of scientific skepticism. I think that Andreasen, Cain, and Zietz deserve credit not only for their foresight but for their courage and perseverance, which in my opinion played a seminal role in the long series of events that have resulted in Magsa
ISSN:0002-8606
DOI:10.1029/EO061i019p00450-01
年代:1980
数据来源: WILEY
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3. |
Problems for the academic fleet |
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Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union,
Volume 61,
Issue 19,
1980,
Page 451-451
Anonymous,
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摘要:
With the changes in ocean science and global economics of the 1980's has come a set of serious problems for the academic fleet of research vessels. Over half the ships now operating in oceanographic research are over 10 years old. They are not fuel efficient, and some are worn out. Strong opinions abound as to the proper size of an ideal ship for the 1980's. Memories of the voyages of the famous sailing shipAtlantis, which was replaced by the modern research shipAtlantis II, built in 1963 (theVema, built in 1923, is still operating), give way now to concepts of modern ocean science projects being undertaken by satellites, coastal research (including the coastal margins) being concentrated, and research of the oceans being done on land.
ISSN:0002-8606
DOI:10.1029/EO061i019p00451-01
年代:1980
数据来源: WILEY
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4. |
Meteorites and geoextinction |
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Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union,
Volume 61,
Issue 19,
1980,
Page 452-452
Peter M. Bell,
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摘要:
A year ago Nobel Laureate Luis W. Alvarez suggested that supernovae may have been responsible for the great geoextinctions, particularly the most recent one, which marked the demise of both orders of dinosaurs, marine and flying reptiles, and many large mammals. In fact, all members of the animal kingdom heavier than 50 lb are suddenly absent in the geologic record at the base of the Tertiary period, and marine invertebrates are affected also. This sort of suggestion (Emanuel Velikovsky aside) generally does not gain much acclaim from earth scientists. But more recently, in a presentation to the American Chemical Society in Houston (Chemical&Engineering News, 58, 15, 25–26, 1980), Alvarez, a physicist, and his son Walter, a geologist, made a geochemical analysis, based on modern planetology, of clays sampled from the Cretaceous‐Tertiary boundary in Italy, Denmark, and Spain. The clay layer corresponds to the most recent geoextinction. Trace element analyses of the clays indicate that metals of the platinum group, such as iridium, are enriched relative to the over‐ and underlying limestones by approximately a factor of 20,at the parts per billion
ISSN:0002-8606
DOI:10.1029/EO061i019p00452-01
年代:1980
数据来源: WILEY
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5. |
Report from IUGG Assembly: “Mayaud” symposium on use of geophysical indices |
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Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union,
Volume 61,
Issue 19,
1980,
Page 453-453
J. Virginia Lincoln,
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摘要:
This symposium was held by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA), at the XVII IUGG General Assembly in Canberra, Australia, 1979, to honor P. N. Mayaud of the Institut de Physique du Globe, Paris. Mayaud was recognized for his long years of service toward the development and improvement of geomagnetic indices. Mayaud has now retired and will be sorely missed by his many colleagues around the world. However, he is leaving a legacy to his coworkers in the form ofDeviation, Meaning, and Use of Geomagnetic Indices (Geophysical Monograph Series, vol 22), to be published by AGU in 1980.
ISSN:0002-8606
DOI:10.1029/EO061i019p00453-01
年代:1980
数据来源: WILEY
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