摘要:

AbstractTwo themes have emerged from research on individuals' decision behavior in dynamic tasks. First, dynamic decision‐making situations have features that permit effective decision performance by rather simple decision rules. Second, the existence of simple but effective decision rules does not guarantee that decision makers will use those rules. In fact, decision makers exhibit systematically ineffective performance, apparently because they misperceive the implications of feedback structures for their decision making. Other interpretations of such decision behavior are that it is a rational allocation of cognitive effort, that it reflects the incomplete generation of decision rules, and that it results from faulty mental models of the environment. The discussion emphasizes the importance of studying individuals' information processing behavior in dynamic setting

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article describes a case study involving information technology managers and their new programmer recruitment policy, but the primary interest is methodological. The processes of issue generation and selection and model conceptualization are described. Early use of “magnetic hexagons” allowed the generation of a range of issues, most of which would not have emerged if system dynamics elicitation techniques had been employed. With the selection of a specific issue, flow diagraming was used to conceptualize a model, computer implementation and scenario generation following naturally. Observations are made on the processes of system dynamics modeling, particularly on the need to employ general techniques of knowledge elicitation in the early stages of interventions. It is proposed that flexible approaches should be used to generate, select, and study the issues, since these reduce any biasing of the elicitation toward system dynamics problems and also allow the participants to take up the most appropriate problem‐ structuring app

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article explains the expansion and contraction of Norwegian mink production in an expanding market as a consequence of pelt price and mink fanning costs. The explanation is based upon a Bayesian approach to estimating the farmers' loan fraction, their response to profitability, and a few delays in economic perception and capacity adjustments.This model is the first in a series being developed to portray national and international fur production and markets. In addition to reflecting Norwegian mink production, the model may be considered generic for international fur production.

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article examines the role that building and using a system dynamics model plays in developing consensus within management teams facing key strategic decisions: A shared view emerges within the team as individual views of the company, its industry, and the socioeconomic climate are articulated and compared. Examples are given based on two actual consulting assignments in which differing views concerning the competitive environment and the general business outlook initially pointed to quite different strategies. The emergence of consensus was considered a major benefit in addition to the forecasts and quantitative evaluations the model provided. In its analysis and examples, this article emphasizes both the “hard” benefits of forecasts and an objective framework for quantitative evaluations and the “soft” benefits of building consensus within managemen

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractNotes and Insights is a forum for discussion and debate about current issues in the philosophy and application of the system dynamics approach, and a marketplace for the exchange of information about current research, policy issues, and teaching experiences. Manuscripts treating material particularly suited to presentation in short form (less than 2,000 words) should be sent to Erich Zahn, Betriebswirtschaft‐liches Institut, Abt. IV, Universität Stuttgart, Keplerstr. 17, D‐7000 Stuttgart 1, Ger

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis section of the System Dynamics Review is an eclectic source of information on items of interest to the system dynamics community. Conferences, articles, books, dissertations, speeches, software and hardware products, and teaching materials are mentioned in this space. The purpose of the section is to provide summaries to help the system dynamics community keep abreast of recent progress related to the field and to anticipate important future events. Submissions covering a wide range of areas and information of possible interest to system dynamicists are encouraged and should be sent to R. Joel Rahn, Faculté des Sciences de l'Administration, Université Laval, Ste. Foy, Quebec, G1K 7P4, Canada. Fax: (418) 656‐2624. E‐mail:rahnj@vml.uiav

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090307

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090308

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090309

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090301

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY